Datasets
Prediction markets data
What the crowd is pricing in — live event and election odds with the liquidity and volume context to judge how meaningful each implied probability is.
The open markets with the deepest liquidity right now — where implied probabilities carry the most weight.
- 1Bitcoin above $120k by end of Q3$12.7M
- 2Fed cuts rates at next FOMC meeting$8.4M
- 3S&P 500 closes above 6,200 this quarter$5.1M
- 4Government shutdown before October$4.4M
- 5US CPI above 3.0% for June$3.9M
Active prediction markets
Sample of active markets — live odds and order-book depth available in the app.
| Event | Outcome | Probability | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed cuts rates at next FOMC meeting | Yes | 62% | $8.4M | 2026-07-29 |
| S&P 500 closes above 6,200 this quarter | Yes | 47% | $5.1M | 2026-09-30 |
| US CPI above 3.0% for June | No | 58% | $3.9M | 2026-07-11 |
| Bitcoin above $120k by end of Q3 | Yes | 41% | $12.7M | 2026-09-30 |
| NVIDIA reports record quarterly revenue | Yes | 78% | $2.6M | 2026-08-20 |
| US unemployment above 4.2% in July | No | 64% | $1.8M | 2026-08-01 |
| Government shutdown before October | No | 71% | $4.4M | 2026-09-30 |
| Apple ships a foldable device in 2026 | No | 83% | $0.9M | 2026-12-31 |
| Oil (WTI) above $80 by end of Q3 | Yes | 38% | $2.2M | 2026-09-30 |
| Tesla deliveries beat consensus in Q2 | Yes | 53% | $3.1M | 2026-07-02 |
Legislation markets
Model vs marketWhere a tracked bill lines up with a live prediction market, we show our transparent structural passage estimate beside the market-implied probability. Informational only — not investment or betting advice.
Loading legislation markets…
How we source it
Sourced directly from Polymarket’s Gamma, Data, and CLOB APIs — implied probabilities, price history, volume, and market depth.
Markets are mapped to the companies, sectors, and events they bear on, so prediction-market odds sit alongside the rest of your signals.