| In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | 48% | 4,737 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania? | 47% | 3,485 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? | 94% | 2,718 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | 26% | 2,259 | Jan 1, 2040 |
| Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? | 62% | 2,234 | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? | 4% | 1,974 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland? | 7% | 1,270 | Jan 21, 2029 |
| Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? | 6% | 1,129 | Jan 2, 2030 |
| Will Trump finish his second term? | 86% | 1,077 | Jan 22, 2029 |
| Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? | 30% | 1,046 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? | 96% | 1,011 | Jul 19, 2028 |
| Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029? | 53% | 995 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term? | 17% | 976 | Jan 19, 2029 |
| Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines? | 78% | 938 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030? | 11% | 891 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006? | 8% | 844 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 | 14% | 817 | Jan 1, 2101 |
| Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it? | 27% | 789 | Feb 1, 2029 |
| Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030? | 74% | 705 | Jan 2, 2030 |
| Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026? | 40% | 665 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War? | 31% | 655 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? | 30% | 647 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms? | 6% | 644 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms? | 3% | 620 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice? | 83% | 613 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections? | 36% | 611 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Will WW3 happen before GTA6? | 2% | 600 | Nov 18, 2026 |
| Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? | 12% | 597 | Dec 31, 2027 |
| Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026? | 4% | 567 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton? | 1% | 553 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Trump visit Russia during his term? | 31% | 529 | Jan 1, 2029 |
| In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion? | 89% | 529 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027? | 78% | 507 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description] | 22% | 482 | Dec 31, 2028 |
| 👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index] | 45% | 481 | Jan 1, 2525 |
| Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040? | 8% | 479 | Jan 2, 2040 |
| In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach? | 92% | 479 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? | 51% | 473 | Jan 2, 2045 |
| Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028? | 14% | 460 | Nov 30, 2028 |
| Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030? | 45% | 455 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? | 28% | 451 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Trump tries to serve a third term? | 19% | 427 | Jan 21, 2029 |
| Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? | 14% | 422 | Jun 26, 2060 |
| Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026? | 12% | 419 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors? | 19% | 411 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? | 7% | 408 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term? | 64% | 406 | Jan 21, 2029 |
| By 2030, will there be a cure to aging? | 11% | 406 | Dec 31, 2029 |
| If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032? | 18% | 403 | Nov 8, 2028 |
| [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027? | 11% | 400 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" | 90% | 393 | Mar 28, 2028 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 21% | 388 | Nov 8, 2028 |
| In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? | 88% | 383 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030? | 93% | 376 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will Trump Die in 2026? | 2% | 375 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime? | 70% | 374 | May 31, 2027 |
| Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza? | 21% | 364 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030? | 99% | 360 | Jan 2, 2030 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket] | 1% | 354 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term? | 35% | 354 | Jan 21, 2030 |
| Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | 34% | 349 | Jan 2, 2027 |
| Will we get AGI before 2027? | 3% | 346 | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Will we get AGI before 2030? | 49% | 346 | Mar 1, 2030 |
| Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? | 4% | 344 | Nov 30, 2026 |
| Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? | 33% | 342 | Jan 16, 2030 |
| Will we get AGI before 2028? | 23% | 339 | Mar 3, 2028 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election? | 64% | 338 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | 17% | 337 | Jan 2, 2027 |
| Anthropic flips Apple before 2030? | 43% | 332 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms? | 62% | 327 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO. | 67% | 326 | Dec 31, 2300 |
| Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030? | 52% | 326 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040? | 90% | 318 | Dec 31, 2039 |
| Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? | 19% | 311 | Dec 20, 2029 |
| Will a human land on the moon by 2028? | 3% | 309 | Dec 31, 2027 |
| At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start? | 24% | 309 | Jun 29, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025? | 3% | 307 | Jan 2, 2027 |
| Will working be necessary in 2070? | 31% | 301 | Jan 1, 2070 |
| If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? | 65% | 297 | Jan 1, 2100 |
| Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change? | 67% | 294 | Jan 1, 2050 |
| Will we get AGI before 2029? | 46% | 288 | Mar 1, 2029 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? | 58% | 287 | Jan 7, 2027 |
| Will Russia nuke Ukraine? | 7% | 284 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027? | 72% | 283 | Dec 25, 2027 |
| Will Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death? | 18% | 283 | Jan 1, 2040 |
| By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn? | 88% | 279 | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Will Starship reach Mars by 2030? | 17% | 279 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025? | 22% | 275 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028? | 62% | 273 | Dec 31, 2028 |
| Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040? | 75% | 273 | Jan 1, 2040 |
| In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play? | 87% | 272 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| By 2050, will there be a cure to aging? | 46% | 271 | Dec 31, 2050 |
| Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030? | 19% | 269 | Dec 31, 2029 |
| Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033? | 27% | 267 | Jan 1, 2033 |
| Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk) | 68% | 267 | Dec 24, 2053 |
| Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself? | 70% | 263 | Jan 20, 2029 |
| Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026? | 16% | 263 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will chess be solved by 2040? | 25% | 261 | Jan 1, 2040 |
| Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns? | 55% | 261 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| "AI 2027" report's predictions borne out by 2027? | 30% | 260 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized? | 15% | 259 | Dec 31, 9999 |
| Trump dies in office during his 2nd term? | 9% | 257 | Jan 20, 2029 |
| Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028? | 31% | 255 | Jan 1, 2029 |
| By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? | 74% | 255 | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? | 50% | 252 | Dec 31, 2029 |
| By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent? | 40% | 249 | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027? | 74% | 249 | Dec 31, 2027 |
| Someone dies wearing Apple Vision Pro | 25% | 247 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will Argentina dollarize its economy before 2028? | 12% | 246 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years? | 25% | 245 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030? | 36% | 243 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will we get AGI before 2032? | 62% | 241 | Mar 1, 2032 |
| In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet? | 50% | 241 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will I have a baby by the end of 2027? | 35% | 240 | Jan 2, 2028 |
| Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)? | 56% | 240 | Jan 21, 2029 |
| Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | 99% | 233 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will a member of the Straw Hat crew die before they find the One Piece? | 50% | 233 | Jan 1, 2100 |
| Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years? | 60% | 228 | Jun 1, 2029 |
| Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026? | 9% | 227 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030? | 43% | 227 | Jan 2, 2031 |
| Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027? | 27% | 225 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030? | 19% | 223 | Dec 31, 2030 |
| If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms? | 7% | 222 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? | 8% | 222 | Feb 2, 2027 |
| At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? | 55% | 221 | Jan 1, 2035 |
| AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028? | 79% | 221 | Jul 18, 2028 |
| Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today? | 24% | 220 | Mar 14, 2029 |
| Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150? | 54% | 218 | Jan 1, 2150 |
| Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026? | 2% | 216 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026? | 26% | 215 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025? | 4% | 215 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026? | 7% | 213 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026? | 7% | 213 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030? | 23% | 211 | Jan 1, 2030 |
| Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060? | 11% | 210 | Dec 31, 2060 |
| If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM) | 12% | 210 | Jan 21, 2029 |
| Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term? | 8% | 209 | Jan 21, 2029 |
| Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war | 35% | 207 | May 15, 2027 |
| Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again? | 50% | 206 | Dec 31, 3000 |
| Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war? | 22% | 204 | Jan 31, 2027 |
| Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court? | 41% | 204 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029? | 14% | 203 | Dec 31, 2029 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio? | 32% | 202 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump die before Joe Biden? | 30% | 201 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Mitch McConnell complete his current term as Senator from Kentucky? | 93% | 201 | Jan 4, 2027 |
| Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027? | 4% | 200 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump? | 73% | 200 | Jan 1, 2040 |
| Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040? | 55% | 198 | Jan 1, 2040 |
| Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet? | 91% | 198 | Dec 31, 2029 |
| Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? | 65% | 198 | Feb 14, 2029 |